New research shows how little we understand about how tariffs are rippling through the economy — and sheds light on how they may affect the landscape in 2026. Why it matters: The tariffs caused historic uncertainty for businesses in 2025,

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that although "the tariff shock is smaller than originally announced", it is a key reason why it now expects the rate of global economic growth to slow to 3.1% in 2026. A year ago, it predicted a 3.3% expansion this year.

In 2025, businesses anticipated the tariffs ahead of their introduction and built up massive inventory stockpiles. As the tariffs hit, the rates at one point surged to 145% on goods coming from China,

President Trump's tariffs have coincided with significant weakness in the jobs market; investors will get important updates this week.

The gold market faced significant developments throughout 2025 as participants responded to evolving drivers, including US tariff policies.

The United Nations is forecasting that the global economy will grow by 2.7% this year. That's slightly lower than last year’s estimate, citing the impact of higher U.S. tariffs, economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.

The nation's central bank made dubious history over the last three months -- and it's a potentially ominous warning for the stock market.

Another major change involved the cost of living. The May forecast saw a 3% inflation rate from 2025 to 2027; that was revised Friday to 2.7%. Most independent economists’ predictions are also in that range. The federal Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to report Tuesday on 2025 inflation.